In the FCS Huddle: Struggling programs must realize it's time

NCAA Football Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New head coaches, especially those with struggling teams, are often quick to sidestep questions about win totals measuring their success.

You've probably heard the coach speak before: If the team gets back to the basics and does all the little things it is supposed to do, then the winning will fall into place.

Of course, if that doesn't happen, then the coach will keep his moves like Jagger the next time the media ask about a timeframe for winning.

It's usually the veteran coaches, and winning coaches, who are more open to wins and losses being a barometer.

Whether that's fair or not is debatable because, well, graduating players is an important measuring stick that too often is overlooked by sports fans.

It makes what football coach Rob Ambrose did in his third season at Towson all the more impressive.

Last year, he turned a team that was 3-19 in his first two seasons into the CAA Football champion and a Top 10 team. But he also had told his team in no- uncertain terms that it was time to start winning. He was even accountable publically ( http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= cfoot2/misc/haley/archive/haley_7_01_2011.htm).

By year three, the honeymoon is over for coaches. They have had time to get their assistant coaches, recruits and philosophies in place. The struggling ones must say it's time to start winning more.

Some coaches who came on board for the 2010 season have taken their programs to great heights in their first two seasons, such as Sam Houston State's Willie Fritz, who had the Bearkats ranked No. 1 last season on their way to a national runner-up finish; Georgia Southern's Jeff Monken and Montana's Robin Pflugrad, who have reached the national semifinals; and Bethune- Cookman's Brian Jenkins, Murray State's Chris Hatcher and Portland State's Nigel Burton, who have orchestrated turnarounds with their programs.

To a lesser extent, Bucknell's Joe Susan, Cornell's Kent Austin, Lamar's Ray Woodard, Tennessee State's Ron Reed and Youngstown State's Eric Wolford have brought excitement to their programs.

But others need to make sure year three is so much better than the first two - channel their inner Ambrose with his blueprint.

There's Princeton third-year coach Bob Surace, who turned in his black-and- orange stripes with the Cincinnati Bengals to return to the ones he wore in the Ivy League with the Tigers. Surace has played enough young players in the last two seasons for the Tigers to improve dramatically on his 2-18 record, although running back Chuck Dibilio, the league's 2011 freshman of the year, is trying to recover from a stroke suffered less than five weeks ago.

Saint Francis (Pa.) hasn't posted a winning season since 1992, but the Northeast Conference team appears primed to show improvement under Chris Villarrial, who is 3-19 through two seasons. With the return of running back Kyle Harbridge (1,430 yards, 14 touchdowns), it could happen.

In the Southwestern Athletic Conference, Southern took a big step in Stump Mitchell's second season, doubling its win total from two in 2010 to four. Meanwhile, Mississippi Valley State ended a 19-game losing streak in Karl Morgan's second season, although it's his only win in his two seasons.

Dale Carlson also has only one win in two seasons at Valparaiso, which has been the FCS' worst program recently. But the Pioneer Football League team has a young nucleus, including quarterback Eric Hoffman, that appears ready for greater success.

Nicholls State dropped from 4-7 in 2010 to 1-10 in Charlie Stubbs' second season. This year's schedule is front-loaded with difficult games, so the Colonels may need to win some games late in the season to show marked improvement.

One program that likely faces a rough going in coach Bill Curry's third season is Georgia State, which is joining the CAA after two seasons as a startup independent. After going 6-5 in 2010, the Panthers fell to 3-8 last season and now have a tougher schedule ahead.

Then again, it was easy to cast doubt on Towson going into 2011.

Most head coaches of struggling teams may talk about progress more than the wins. Even if it's just behind the scenes, it's time they demand accountability in the win column.

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Football Betting Lines

The 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released and Denver Broncos' running back Knowshon Moreno has been made the opening favorite.

Bet NFL Sports Lines

Moreno was selected in the first round of April's NFL draft and is expected to carry the rushing load for the Broncos this season. And with Jay Cutler now in Chicago, Moreno might be expected to be Denver's entire offense.

Betting Lines from sports betting lines have made Moreno a 5/2 favorite to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona Cardinals) is right behind Moreno at 7/2, while Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) and receiver Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) are 5/1 to win. Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) and Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) are 7/1 and 8/1, respectively.

A couple of players who present some value are Josh Freeman, Shonn Green and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Freeman needs to beat out Byron Leftwich to become the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but if he does, he has a lot or raw talent and could use the weapons around him (i.e. Kellen Winslow Jr. and Antonio Bryant) to be very successful in his first season.

Green enters a crowded backfield in New York, but considering both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are unhappy about their contract situations and might holdout, the former Iowa product could become the Jets' primary back.

Everyone was shocked when Al Davis took Heyward-Bey with the eighth overall pick in April's draft, but the kid has a tremendous amount of talent and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell takes the next step this year, the former Maryland product could blossom. Plus, Heyward-Bey will be looking to prove the people wrong who said Oakland should have taken Michael Crabtree with the No. 8 pick.

And if you're looking for a deep sleeper, check out Pat White at 30/1. He enters the Miami Dolphins vaunted “Wild Cat” offense and could be a big time playmaker.

For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, see below.

2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win

Ramses Barden (NYG) 40/1

Andre Brown (NYG) 20/1

Donald Brown (IND) 5/1

Kenny Britt (TEN) 20/1

Glenn Coffee (SFO) 30/1

Chase Coffman (CIN) 50/1

Michael Crabtree (SFO) 5/1

Josh Freeman (TB) 14/1

Shonn Green (NYJ) 14/1

Percy Harvin (MIN) 10/1

Darrius Heyward-Bay (OAK) 18/1

Juaquan Iglesias (CHI) 30/1

Cornelius Ingram (PHI) 50/1

Rashad Jennings (JAC) 30/1

Johnny Knox (CHI) 40/1

Jeremy Maclin (PHI) 18/1

Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 30/1

LeSean McCoy (PHI) 12/1

Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 5/2

Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 18/1

Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 30/1

Brian Robiskie (CLE) 20/1

Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 7/1

Matthew Stafford (DET) 8/1

Jason Smith (STL) 40/1

Mike Thomas (JAC) 25/1

Patrick Turner (MIA) 50/1

Mike Wallace (PIT) 50/1

Chris Wells (ARI) 7/2

Pat White (MIA) 30/1

Field (Any Other Player) 9/1

Betting Line

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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